In general, no pitch has fallen out of vogue more sharply the last few years than the sinker. Aaron Civale made such a loud statement in his first outing of the season on Tuesday, setting a career-high with nine strikeouts and tossing 100 pitches, that the right-hander decided to match that performance against the Twins. Here’s Kluber’s:It can’t be a coincidence that they look this similar. It was the same type of quietly impressive upswing seen from the likes of Is that what we’re witnessing here?

Their repertoires at this stage of their careers could be carbon copies of themselves.The only major difference in their arsenals was that Kluber relied more on a changeup to get lefties out while Civale utilizes a curveball to do so. So that alone is a bit of a problem.

He’s a solid pitcher, whose spin rate with both his fastball (85 percentile) and curve (96 percentile) were highly ranked last year.Basically, the question isn’t whether Civale is good, but instead if he can be Initial projections say no, and his late-season trends lend credence to that.The Indians, who could use a little more certainty on the back end of the rotation, are surely hoping Civale’s September was just a slight regression, and not a sign of things to come.Casey, How much of his "struggles" in September have to do with the total amount of innings or total number of pitches thrown?

His ground ball rate is just 38.5% in his first three starts, well below the league average 42.9%.

Three of those fell for hits, so his conversion rate even on that is pretty good. For one thing of the 56 times Civale threw his changeup in 2019 he only tossed it 6 times in two-strike counts, so that helps explain the 0.0 K%.Considering Civale’s #2 and #3 pitches are so good, I don’t necessarily think this is a bad thing but one would have to assume if stretched out over a full season, that Civale K% with his changeup would more than likely resemble Kluber’s over the course of a full season. The outlet has high praise for Civale’s command and fastball spin rate, while also complimenting his cutter. Civale threw 39 sinkers Wednesday night, according to Baseball Savant, compared to 26 in his last start. The team in return has designated outfielder Domingo Santana for assignment. So why aren’t we tripping all ourselves to draft Civale this season?There’s an interesting mix of underwhelming and unsustainable numbers in the above table but they don’t tell the whole story either. League-wide, it peaked in usage in 2012 at 22.5%, and this year is setting another record low in usage rate across baseball at 14.7%. That’s a huge difference when you consider at a 19.8 SwStr% and a 47.0 O-Swing% that’s 59 fewer whiffs, and 57 fewer chases out of the zone. Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs) Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant) Aaron Civale has been fantastic through his first five starts of 2020. Baseball Savant has identified a 95 mph exit velocity as a major turning point for hit probability — at 94 mph, the league-wide wOBA is a slightly below league average .313, or roughly Miguel Rojas. Aaron Civale, RHP. By 2015 he had cut that usage all the way down to 30.1% and The Sheriff was born.

However, when making the case for who deserves one of the final rotation spots, these stats can’t be ignored.Neither can the fact that, when compared to those two, Civale boasts the most intriguing pitch arsenal.Civale keeps opposing hitters on their toes with a combination of six different pitches. Baseball Savant ranked Civale’s fastball spin in the 85th percentile of the league in 2019. I trust my eyes along with the stats, and my eyes tell me that I'm much more worried about Plutko and Plesac than Civale. Baseball Savant It’s a scary chart when you think about how homer-happy hitters are these days, but at least sometimes it’s actually good because of Civale… Civale already has the pitch and concept down he just needs to dial in his command a bit more and this could be every bit as devastating a pitch as Kluber’s breaker was.This pitch has long been the bane of Kluber’s existence.

We can dive into the individual pitches here in a moment but I did want to mention how Kluber’s pitch mix changed over the years. Thanks for creating this. This isn’t an attempt to convince you that Civale will become Before we get too far into said comparison let’s summarize Civale’s 2019 season.It’s hard for a young pitcher to have a better 2019, especially when you consider the fact that he spent most of the year as a 23-year-old. Once you see it you understand their dilemma:I still don’t know how anyone hits that pitch. What about Civale?It’s so close. It happens to everyone. Civale demonstrated over his 50 some odd innings in the majors an ability to induce weak contact and the xStats back that up. It also happens to drop 67.7 inches, an amount of vertical curve movement bested by only eight pitchers last year.Strictly from a weapons standpoint, it certainly seems like Civale is ready to make a name for himself in 2020.Equally encouraging is the fact that, when reevaluating his rookie debut, there isn’t a ton of deception in his surface-level stats.Civale allowed very little quality contact in 2019, with a low average exit velocity (86.6) and a minuscule barrel rate (2.4%).

Statcast Statistics. Fangraphs refers to this pitch as a slider, while baseball savant will call it a curveball. Yes, sinkers usually should be thrown lower. First things first despite their similarities they were very different in terms of the quality of contact they drew.It clear that Civale’s sinker did a much better job of creating weak fly ball contact than Kluber’s.

Both project notable jumps in ERA (4.81) and FIP (4.90), with only a small dip in WAR (1.4).This shouldn’t be viewed as any sort of dig on Civale. He’s mainly a sinker ball guy, with a nasty wipeout slider. As a result, his expected outcome stats for slugging percentage (.347 xSLG) and wOBA (.278 xwOBA) aren’t far off from his actual numbers mentioned above.Despite this, projections for Civale are notably unfavorable.Almost all outlets predict his ERA will land in the high 4’s this season, perhaps discouraged by the increases in FIP, WHIP and walk rate he displayed during the final month of last season.

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